Current High-Risk Situations:
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G20 Revolution Risk Heat Map
Updated every 6 hours
Revolution Risk Level:
Stage 0: Stable (0-20)
Stage 1: Tension (21-40)
Stage 2: Escalation (41-60)
Stage 3: Critical (61-80)
Stage 4: Revolution Likely (81-100)
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Revolution Risk Analysis Framework
Structural Risk Factors (Baseline)
Slow-moving, baseline conditions that create revolutionary potential. These factors build up over years and provide the foundation for unrest.
Economic Stress Indicators
GDP Per Capita Trend
Declining
Global Avg Unemployment
8.2%
Inflation Pressure
High
Debt Crisis Risk
Moderate
Economic Stress Index: 68/100
Political Legitimacy
Corruption Perception
Increasing
Democracy Index
5.4/10
Freedom Score
62/100
Repression Level
High
Legitimacy Crisis Index: 72/100
Social Fractures
Ethnic/Religious Tensions
Moderate
Youth Unemployment
18.4%
Migration Pressure
High Inflow
Social Fracture Index: 58/100
Environmental Stress
Water Scarcity
Rising
Food Price Volatility
High
Climate Disasters
Increasing Frequency
Environmental Stress Index: 45/100
Historical Case Study: Tunisia 2011
Youth unemployment (35%) + food price spike (+30%) + weak institutions (authoritarian regime) = Arab Spring revolution. This demonstrates how multiple structural factors combine to create revolutionary conditions.
Trigger Signals (Live Data)
Fast-moving events and signals that can rapidly escalate revolutionary conditions. Updated in real-time.
Protest Activity (Live)
Updated every 2 hours
Active Protests (24h)
147
Strike Actions
28
Mass Demonstrations
12
France: Pension reform protests continue
2 hours ago • 150,000+ participants
Brazil: Teachers' strike enters day 15
6 hours ago • Nationwide impact
Repression Signals
Government response monitoring
Protest Arrests (7d)
2,847
Media Censorship
43 incidents
Violence Reports
18
Turkey: Internet restrictions implemented
4 hours ago • Social media access limited
Russia: 200 arrested at opposition rally
8 hours ago • Navalny supporters targeted
Elite Fractures
Leadership stability indicators
High-Level Defections
7
Cabinet Resignations
23
Opposition Alliances
15 forming
UK: Deputy PM announces resignation
1 hour ago • Policy disagreements cited
Italy: Coalition partner withdraws support
12 hours ago • Government stability questioned
Catalyst Shocks
Sudden destabilizing events
Price Shock Events
5
Subsidy Cuts
3
Political Violence
2
Argentina: Fuel prices increase 40%
6 hours ago • Massive public protests expected
South Africa: Power grid crisis deepens
18 hours ago • 8-hour daily blackouts
Event Progression Stages
Revolutionary progression through distinct stages with real-time probability assessment.
Stage 0
Stable
No significant protest signals
12 countries
Stage 1
Tension
Protests present but controlled
8 countries
Stage 2
Escalation
Mass protests, repression, casualties
5 countries
Stage 3
Critical
Defections, army split, leadership crisis
0 countries
Stage 4
Revolution Likely
Regime collapse imminent
0 countries
Countries in Stage 2: Escalation
🇹🇷 Turkey
Economic protests, press restrictions
🇨🇳 China
Regional unrest, surveillance increase
🇰🇷 South Korea
Political corruption scandals
🇿🇦 South Africa
Power crisis, economic inequality
🇫🇷 France
Pension reform protests ongoing
Most Stable Countries (Stage 0)
🇯🇵 Japan
Political stability, low unrest
🇨🇦 Canada
Strong institutions, minimal protests
🇦🇺 Australia
Economic stability maintained
🇺🇸 United States
Democratic processes functioning
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Post-Brexit stabilization
Revolution Probability Bands (Real-Time)
Scoring Methodology
Comprehensive methodology for calculating revolution risk scores across all G20 countries.
Baseline Probability (0-100)
Structural risk factors weighted by importance:
Economic Stress
40% weight
Political Legitimacy
30% weight
Social Fractures
20% weight
Environmental Stress
10% weight
Baseline = (Economic × 0.4) + (Political × 0.3) + (Social × 0.2) + (Environmental × 0.1)
Signal Multipliers
Live event multipliers applied to baseline:
Protest Wave
+5% points
Government Repression
+3% points
Elite Defections
+10% points
Catalyst Shock
+8% points
Final Score = Baseline + Signal Multipliers
Decay Model
Risk fades without new triggering events:
Daily Decay Rate
-2% per day
Half-life of Events
14 days
Minimum Floor
Baseline score
Scores gradually return to baseline if no new trigger events occur within the decay window.
Country-Specific Calibration
Adjustments based on regime type:
Consolidated Democracies
-10% modifier
Hybrid Regimes
+0% modifier
Authoritarian States
+15% modifier
Fragile States
+25% modifier
Democratic institutions provide stability buffers against revolutionary pressures.
Calculation Example: France (Current Score: 45)
Structural Factors (Baseline)
- Economic Stress: 35 × 0.4 = 14.0
- Political Legitimacy: 25 × 0.3 = 7.5
- Social Fractures: 40 × 0.2 = 8.0
- Environmental Stress: 30 × 0.1 = 3.0
- Baseline Total: 32.5
Live Signals (Multipliers)
- Ongoing Protests: +8.0
- Government Response: +3.0
- Media Coverage: +2.5
- Democracy Modifier: -1.0
- Final Score: 45.0
Data Sources: NewsData.io API, World Bank Governance Indicators, Freedom House, Transparency International, GDELT Project, Social Media Monitoring
Update Frequency: Structural factors (monthly), Trigger signals (2-6 hours), Event progression (real-time)
Methodology validated against historical revolution cases (Arab Spring 2011, Color Revolutions 2000s)
Update Frequency: Structural factors (monthly), Trigger signals (2-6 hours), Event progression (real-time)
Methodology validated against historical revolution cases (Arab Spring 2011, Color Revolutions 2000s)